UFC on Fox 23 Prelims – Sam Alvey Keeps Smiling

Sam Alvey vs. Nate Marquardt

‘Smiling’ Sam Alvey is one of the most active fighters in the UFC, and this will now be his fifth fight in just seven months. He’s on a roll now too, stringing together three wins in a row against some quality opposition. Alvey is usually a finishing machine but wasn’t able to get the job done against Alex Nicholson in November. He pinched round two and three to win a decision after losing the first round.

Nate Marquardt is stepping into the octagon for the first time since practically kicking Tamdan McCrory’s head off shoulders back in October. Marquardt has been around a long time and is definitely no slouch. Previously, he has defeated the likes of Tyron Woodley and Demian Maia, and he’ll be riding a wave of confidence after stopping McCrory.

The Breakdown

This fight is a true test for Sam Alvey who usually relies on his heavy punching power to put opponents to sleep. Marquardt’s chin has been questionable for a while now, and Alvey will be looking to test this as early and often as possible. Alvey’s a hard man to predict, he moves forward slowly and keeps his feet planted so that he can throw with power at any given moment. I think Alvey will work Marquardt out late in the first round and then potentially finish in the second round. I think there’s good value to be had on the over 1.5 round betting.

Tip

Total Rounds – Over 1.5

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Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling

Raphael Assuncao gets a chance to find his rhythm after an unsuccessful return to the octagon to rematch T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 200 in which he lost a 30-27 unanimous decision. Previously, before his layoff due to injury, he had managed to defeat the likes of Bryan Caraway and T.J. Dillashaw and was on a 7-0 streak in the UFC.

Aljamain Sterling experienced his first loss as a professional mixed martial artist after losing a split decision to Bryan Caraway in May. Sterling controlled Caraway for the first round and looked to finish from a full nelson position but instead felt like he had burned himself out in doing so and then later lost the two next rounds.

The Breakdown

Both of these fighters aren’t used to losing, and one of them will, unfortunately, have to experience the downs of a two-loss streak. It’s difficult to gauge Assuncao’s performance at UFC 200 because T.J. Dillashaw is on a whole new level compared to most in the bantamweight division, especially after returning to the cage after 20+ months, as Assuncao did. Sterling is an impressive fighter and although he wasn’t supposed to lose to Bryan Caraway in what was a big upset, he still looked great in that first round.

Tip

Raphael Assuncao to Win

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Jingliang Li vs. Bobby Nash

Bobby Nash steps in on late notice to replace Yancy Medeiros in a welterweight battle at UFC on Fox 23. Nash has managed an 8-1 record in mixed martial arts before coming to the UFC. All five of his most recent fights have ended in stoppage victory, with four by way of KO/TKO.

Jingliang Li has struggled to find traction in the UFC since joining in 2014. He’s been on a yo-yo of sorts with a 3-2 record and not one of his wins being consecutive to another.

The Breakdown

Jingliang Li sticks to his opponents and moves forward with pure aggression. He’ll stand and bang with Bobby Nash and won’t be afraid to take a couple of shots as he moves his way into range. It’s hard to bet against Jingliang Li’s power, so will be looking for value in the round betting considering there are no odds available currently.

Tip

Jingliang Li via Stoppage

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Luis Henrique da Silva vs. Jordan Johnson

Luis Henrique da Silva fights again almost immediately after losing to Paul Craig in early December. Craig dominated the grappling side of the fight with ease, and Henrique da Silva seemed to lose all confidence before losing due to submission in round two. Henrique da Silva was on a roll before facing Craig and entered the fight as a heavy favourite as well.

Jordan Johnson steps in for his UFC debut after putting together a 6-0 professional record with four of his wins coming in Resurrection Fighting Alliance. Four of his six wins have come via submission and three of these by choke.

The Breakdown

Jordan Johnson has the tendency to be picked apart on his feet by opponents and kind of flinches up when he is punched. Luis Henrique da Silva can put together some decent combinations and could cause trouble for Johnson. Johnson may be able to control the grappling side of the fight in the same way that Paul Craig did against Luis Henrique da Silva.

Tip

Luis Henrique da Silva via Stoppage

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Tips Summary

Sam Alvey vs. Nate Marquardt
Total Rounds – Over 1.5
Sunday 29th January, 03:00 GMT
Odds: 2.00Bet €100 to win €2001/1Bet £100 to win £200+100Bet $100 to win $2001.00Bet HK$100 to win HK$2001.00Bet Rp100 to win Rp2001.0000Bet RM100 to win RM200  –  Paddypower

Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling
Raphael Assuncao to Win
Sunday 15th January, 02:30 GMT
Odds: 1.67Bet €100 to win €16767/100Bet £100 to win £167-149Bet $100 to win $1670.67Bet HK$100 to win HK$167-1.49Bet Rp100 to win Rp1670.6700Bet RM100 to win RM167  –  BetVictor

Jingliang Li vs. Bobby Nash
Jingliang Li via Stoppage
Sunday 15th January, 02:00 GMT
Odds: 3.25Bet €100 to win €3259/4Bet £100 to win £325+225Bet $100 to win $3252.25Bet HK$100 to win HK$3252.25Bet Rp100 to win Rp325-0.4444Bet RM100 to win RM325  –  Bet365

Luis Henrique da Silva vs. Jordan Johnson
Luis Henrique da Silva via Stoppage
Sunday 15th January, 02:00 GMT
Odds: 4.00Bet €100 to win €4003/1Bet £100 to win £400+300Bet $100 to win $4003.00Bet HK$100 to win HK$4003.00Bet Rp100 to win Rp400-0.3333Bet RM100 to win RM400  –  Bet365