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Alexa Grasso vs. Felice Herrig

Alexa Grasso is being thrown right into the UFC’s spotlight in the UFC Fight Night 104 Co-Main Event after her defeating Heather Clark in her UFC debut in November. Grasso entered the UFC with plenty of hype, after defeating Mizuki Inoue in one of the best Invicta fights of all time.

Grasso showed a well-rounded game through her fight against Heather Clark, including beautiful combination striking, excellent clinch control and an ability to pressure her opponent when necessary. I’m also impressed by her takedown defense and evasiveness standing up. Grasso is the next-generation of MMA fighters who can do it all.

Felice Herrig is an experienced striker with a background of Muay Thai and Kickboxing and is coming off a submission victory against Kailan Curran that was deemed worthy of a performance of the night bonus. Herrig found Curran’s back with a silky smooth transition and locked in the rear-naked choke, moving her record to 11-6.

The Breakdown

The hype behind a fighter can certainly blind opinions when analysing a fight, and this one is no exception considering the excitement behind Alexa Grasso’s career in MMA. However, there’s no reason not to believe the hype, considering Grasso made relatively easy work of Heather Clark and employs smart game-plans alongside heavy punching power and excellent octagon control.

Felice Herrig is very active with submissions and will be looking for ways to finish Alexa Grasso on the ground. This can go either two ways, either find a submission on the unsuspecting Grasso or put herself into a bad position that Grasso can take advantage of. There’s no value in match betting here, instead look for the value on the under 2.5 rounds for a quick stoppage!

Tip

Total Rounds – Under 2.5

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Abel Trujillo vs. James Vick

Abel Trujillo has put together a 9-2 record since 2012 with his only two losses coming to elite lightweight contenders in Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Trujillo is built like a brick and loves to throw punches with force.

James Vick was putting together a run of excellent victories, defeating Jake Matthews, Glaico Franca and Nick Hein consecutively before experiencing his first professional MMA loss against the very talented Beneil Dariush recently. Vick is a tall, lanky fighter who looks to utilise his range in striking battles.

The Breakdown

An intriguing matchup based upon physiques alone, with James Vick being the thinner, taller guy of the division and Trujillo being the shorter and stockier fighter. Expect Vick to move around the outside of the cage and attempt to use his height and reach advantage over Trujillo.

The pressure of shorter fighters with raw aggression such as Dariush has caused trouble for Vick, however, and Trujillo is no exception. He’ll wait for Vick to throw and then come straight back with powerful counter shots. When these land on the chin of James Vick, don’t expect him to last as long as he did against Dariush – this time he’ll be out instantly.

Tip

Abel Trujillo to Win

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Ovince Saint Preux vs. Volkan Oezdemir

If you’re wondering who Volkan Oezdemir is, you’re not alone. Oezdemir is stepping in on late notice to replace the injured Jan Blachowicz. Volkan faces off against one of the best light heavyweight’s in the world in Ovince Saint Preux. He has made short work of his professional opponents, finishing ten of them in the first round, another two by decision and one loss for a record of 12-1.

Ovince Saint Preux needs to bounce back with a win after a brutal knockout loss against Jimi Manuwa back at UFC 204. A call-up from a newcomer making his UFC debut is a perfect opportunity for OSP to return to form.

The Breakdown

Volkan Oezdemir may have power in his hands, but he’s not ready for someone of OSP’s calibre just yet. Even with OSP’s last performance being the disappointing outing against Jimi Manuwa, it’s hard to believe he won’t overwhelm Oezdemir who seems a little too sloppy on the ground for my liking.

However, there’s not much value in betting in OSP here so we’ll wait for the markets to develop before finding value in ‘method’ markets.

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Anthony Hamilton vs. Marcel Fortuna

Numerous media outlets announced on the 23rd January that Anthony Hamilton vs. Marcel Fortuna had been added to the main card of UFC Fight Night 104 on what is extremely late notice.

Marcel Fortuna is a second degree BJJ black belt with an overwhelming ground game. Too often, however, Fortuna relies on getting his opponents to the mat to start working his game. This was evident in his TUF 23 fight against Cory Hendricks in which he tried to take down Hendricks throughout the fight but really lacked the required takedown skill.

Anthony Hamilton is coming off a loss to Francis Ngannou which isn’t that much of a delay to his career, considering Ngannou is widely touted as the next big thing in the heavyweight division. Hamilton owns the second fastest KO in UFC heavyweight history, knocking out Damian Grabowski in just 14 seconds at UFC 201.

The Breakdown

There will be good value in the ‘method of victory’ markets in this one when released. I’ll be looking for value in Fortuna via submission.

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Jessica Andrade vs. Angela Hill

I remember watching Jessica Andrade’s UFC debut back in September 2015 against Raquel Pennington and being mightily impressed. Andrade entered the fight on just two weeks notice and started the fight incredibly well, taking down Pennington with some huge throws. Sadly, she became fatigued, as per fighting on late notice, and eventually gave up her back and was choked out.

Since then, Andrade has taken the UFC by storm and worked her way into title shot discussion, although she’s probably that two or three fights to tighten up her skills even more before facing the truly elite Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the strawweight title.

Angela Hill managed to string together a 4-0 run at Invicta after losing to Rose Namajunas in the UFC in 2015 and now has a tough return to the UFC in Jessica Andrade. Angela Hill has an impressive striking game and loves to stick and move, utilising her experience in Muay Thai and nasty elbows.

The Breakdown

Jessica Andrade is one of the strongest women in the division and runs through opponents like a tank. She has beastly grappling skills and also an incredible striking rate through her UFC career. Angela Hill is an excellent stand-up fighter and can definitely damage Andrade, but it’s hard to bet against Andrade and her pure strength and determination to dominate her opponents.

Andrade is at incredibly short odds and doesn’t provide much value. Once again, I’ll be studying the method of victory markets on release.

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Tips Summary

Alexa Grasso vs. Felice Herrig
Total Rounds – Under 1.5
Sunday 29th January, 04:30 GMT
Odds: 3.20Bet €100 to win €32011/5Bet £100 to win £320+220Bet $100 to win $3202.20Bet HK$100 to win HK$3202.20Bet Rp100 to win Rp320-0.4545Bet RM100 to win RM320  –  Paddypower

Abel Trujillo vs. James Vick
Abel Trujillo to Win
Sunday 15th January, 04:00 GMT
Odds: 1.91Bet €100 to win €19191/100Bet £100 to win £191-110Bet $100 to win $1910.91Bet HK$100 to win HK$191-1.10Bet Rp100 to win Rp1910.9100Bet RM100 to win RM191  –  Bet365

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Volkan Oezdemir
No Bet (Waiting for extended markets)
Sunday 15th January, 03:30 GMT

Anthony Hamilton vs. Marcel Fortuna
No Bet (Waiting for extended markets)
Sunday 15th January, 03:00 GMT

Jessica Andrade vs. Angela Hill
No Bet (Waiting for extended markets)
Sunday 15th January, 02:30 GMT