Expelled to Teach Rivals a Lesson at Kempton

2:00 Sedgefield – On Albert’s Head

On Albert’s Head has been a costly individual and a frustrating one at that. Neil Mulholland’s inmate clearly has ability at a low level and must be working well at home judging by the market support he receives when the horse visits the racecourse. However, he has, on more than one occasion, shown that there may be an issue when it comes to concentration and resolution. Sounds like we are going to be picking the horse as a lay right? Wrong.

Despite his previous misgivings, there are reasons to believe that On Albert’s Head is going to put his best foot forward at Sedgefield and go close, if not winning the opening race of the day. Bookmakers have remained reasonably cautious regarding Mulholland’s runner due to the previous market support, but they have installed the 7-year-old Mountain High gelding at odds that are attractive enough to warrant an each-way bet. We go in at 6.50Bet €100 to win €65011/2Bet £100 to win £650+550Bet $100 to win $6505.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$6505.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp650-0.1818Bet RM100 to win RM650  with Bet365.

One win from twenty-four starts under rules – hardly inspirational form on paper. However On Albert’s Head has been successful in point to points, recording back to back successes last year. The horse was with Richard Woollacott but moved to the Neil Mulholland yard this term and was immediately backed to get off to a winning start at Bangor. After making most, the horse was reeled in up the run in and finished second. Despite not getting in the winner’s enclosure, that debut effort for the stable was highly satisfactory and the horse stepped up in trip at Newton Abbott looking to make amends. After tanking through the race, the horse had the race at his mercy when making a shuddering mistake at the last. All momentum was lost and the horse was passed by a solitary rival, filling the second place position again.

Many bettors took the approach that On Albert’s Head was a winner without a penalty – he would have surely collected if it were not for that error, and the market support came again last time out at Southwell. Again, things didn’t go as planned, and after being held up too far off the pace, the gelding struggled to make up the ground. Sedgefield is a much more galloping course that will allow the horse to get into a rhythm and he can gradually move into contention without coming off the bridle. The hill at the track doesn’t take any prisoners and Noel Fehily will be looking to hold on to his mount.

Neil Mulholland is very successful with his non-chasers during the months of August to December; 89/339 (26%) for a £51 profit to a £1 stake.

6.10 Kempton – Expelled

James Fanshawe is almost unrivalled when it comes to Kempton. The mad scientist from Newmarket is an astute placer of his thoroughbreds, and he carefully maps out their schedule in order to maximise the chance of winning. His 2 year old Exceed and Excel colt Expelled makes his nursery debut of a relatively reasonable mark of 71. The horse displayed his best form on an artificial surface and although the bare figures of his three runs to date don’t scream ‘well handicapped horse here’, he has to be respected coming from the stable and is likely to step forward significantly. If odds of 8.00Bet €100 to win €8007/1Bet £100 to win £800+700Bet $100 to win $8007.00Bet HK$100 to win HK$8007.00Bet Rp100 to win Rp800-0.1429Bet RM100 to win RM800  are available come race time with Ladbrokes, we would be surprised.

James Fanshawe does especially well on the all-weather surfaces and when his runners switch to the artificial going from the grass; 85/362 (23%) for £113 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.46.

Tips Summary

14:00 Sedgefield – On Albert’s Head each way
Tuesday 3rd October
Odds: 6.50Bet €100 to win €65011/2Bet £100 to win £650+550Bet $100 to win $6505.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$6505.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp650-0.1818Bet RM100 to win RM650

18:10 Kempton – Expelled to win
Tuesday 3rd October
Odds: 8.00Bet €100 to win €8007/1Bet £100 to win £800+700Bet $100 to win $8007.00Bet HK$100 to win HK$8007.00Bet Rp100 to win Rp800-0.1429Bet RM100 to win RM800