Excellent Underdog Value At UFC Fight Night 137

Sam Alvey is on a roll again for the first time in almost two years. Although regarded for his heavy punching power, Alvey has finished his opponent in only one of his last seven bouts; that was Marcin Prachnio who was careless enough to walk right into Alvey’s punches. Besides Prachnio, it seems as if everyone else has worked out Alvey and his remarkably limited abilities as a mixed martial artist. As long as you can avoid the powerful punches that are coming your way, it seems as if you can cruise past Alvey on the scorecards considering his low volume of strikes.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will be returning to action for the first time since November 2016. On that day, “Little Nog” was outworked by Ryan Bader and was handed his third defeat in his last four fights. “Little Nog” has managed just one win since defeating Rashad Evans in February 2013, and that was when he finished Patrick Cummins with punches in 2016.

When it comes to analyzing how these two fighters match up against each other, there’s not much else to say other than Antonio Rogerio Nogueira desperately needs to avoid being tagged by Alvey’s solid right hand. If he manages to do so, he could sneak a decision victory against the low-volume Alvey and cash in as one of the best underdog bets of the evening.

Alvey isn’t the young up-and-coming fighter that would easily cause problems for “Little Nog.” Instead, he’s a heavy-handed and predictable fighter that can easily be exploited.

Prediction: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to win by split decision

Something needs to change for Renan Barao, but we’re not exactly sure what that is. Many of Barao’s recent defeats were to high-quality competition, including one loss to the current champion T.J. Dillashaw, but we’re used to seeing more from Barao.

Andre Ewell is a fight-finishing machine who has recorded seven stoppage victories (and eight wins) in his most recent nine fights. Ewell has shown an impressive range of stoppage techniques, mixing up submission stoppages with several KO/TKO finishes.

Ewell is slick on his feet, but he’s not as dangerous as a T.J. Dillashaw or Aljamain Sterling inside the cage. Barao will also need to be careful of Ewell’s submission ability, as he recently wrapped Dinis Paiva in a D’Arce choke after Paiva attempted to take him down. The D’Arce is just one of the dangers of Ewell’s long reach, as he also uses his length to pick apart an opponent with jabs.

Randa Markos has alternated wins and losses all the way back to October 2013. Since then, she’s never once managed consecutive wins or experienced consecutive defeats in 12 professional bouts. She’s coming off a defeat to Nina Ansaroff in July this year in which she managed to control Ansaroff for the majority of the first round but then had all nine of her takedowns stuffed in the second and third round.

Marina Rodriguez is a Muay Thai specialist who recently overwhelmed Maria Oliveira on a Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series show with effective striking. She’s particularly strong in the clinch and uses her advantage to control her opponent while connecting with damaging knees.

We’re yet to see how Marina Rodriguez handles takedown attempts, and this could be the deciding factor of this fight with Markos. Markos typically uses dirty boxing techniques and her clinch work to close the distance and take the fight to the mat. Against Rodriguez, however, the inside might be a disaster for Markos, and she could be pieced up by the accurate and high-volume striking of the newcomer. Also look for the calf lick, which Rodriguez should have tremendous success with in this fight.